Plan on a very wet, messy Thanksgiving! The weather is going to be very up and down for the rest of this holiday week. This afternoon, we are drying out from morning rain with a mix of sun and clouds and highs in the 50s. You will notice the wind this afternoon which will be gusting at times to around 25 mph. Tomorrow will be decent as well -- with a mix of sun and clouds and highs in the upper 40s.

STORM WATCH - Turkey trots, last minute runs to the store, local travel or anything you have planned on Thursday - plan on it being wet all day. While flooding is not going to be a problem, it is going to be a nasty, wet day. Parts of Orange, Putnam, Dutchess and Ulster counties may see some wet snowflakes during the morning with coatings on colder surfaces at worst in those areas before a change to a cold rain. Northwestern areas in Ulster County can pick up a slushy coating to a few inches of snow, primarily on colder surfaces, but watch out for slick travel all throughout the lower Hudson Valley with the wet weather around. Temperatures are expected to be above freezing through the duration of this storm.

NYC PARADE BALLOON OUTLOOK: As of this morning they would fly, but if the storm becomes stronger or tracks a bit closer, the wind forecast will go up. Wind threshold: If the wind is stronger than 23 mph sustained or 34 mph gusts, they will not fly.

Friday will be drier with a mix of clouds and some breaks of sun. There can be a brief passing rain or snow shower, but much of the day looks dry and breezy and chilly.

Beyond that, get ready for the coldest air of the season yet to move in over the weekend with high temperatures only in the 30s through at least the first week of December!

FORECAST:

TODAY: STORM WATCH (AM) - BIG TRAVEL DAY - After a wet morning, this afternoon will be nicer, but a bit windy. Sun and clouds this afternoon with highs in the 50s. Wind gusts will be in the 15 to 25 mph range.

TONIGHT: A few clouds with a lighter breeze. Cold with lows around 35 degrees.

WEDNESDAY (ANOTHER BIG TRAVEL DAY): Decent, but chilly and breezy. Sun and clouds with highs around 49 degrees. Lows near 38 degrees.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): STORM WATCH - Plan on a wet, annoying type of weather day. Cloudy with a steady, chilly rain for most. There will be some wintry mix and some wet snow along and north of I-84. Any light accumulations will be confined to colder surfaces. Roads can be slick in spots, but wet and slushy in these areas as temperatures will be above freezing. Highs near 46 degrees in Westchester and Rockland Counties. It will be a few degrees colder elsewhere. I would just plan on a wet, nasty day on Thanksgiving with around one-half to one inch of rain for most in the lower Hudson Valley. Lows around 35 degrees.

FRIDAY: For the busy holiday shopping day, but it is looking drier. That said, a passing brief rain or snow shower cannot be ruled out. Partly sunny and breezy otherwise. Highs around 45 degrees.. Lows around 29 degrees.

SATURDAY: Sun and clouds. Breezy and chilly. Highs around 41 degrees. Lows around 26 degrees. SUNDAY: Sun and clouds with highs around 38 degrees. Lows near 25 degrees.

MONDAY: Partly sunny with a few flurries possible. Much of the day is dry. Highs around 38 degrees. Lows around 25 degrees.